12:42, 4 November 2009
So here we are, a mere 8 years after Laeken, with an outcome from the whole sorry process. At one level, one has to admire the determination of those involved in persisting with an increasingly fraught situation, even if the basic objective of Laeken to reconnect with the people went out of the window several years ago.
However, that’s largely neither here nor there, since the matter in hand is the position of the British Conservative Party. All summer, I’ve been asked about “whether Cameron will really hold a referendum” (it was a long, slow summer). My position has always been that the referendum promise had very little to do with Lisbon and very much to do with party management. For Cameron, a referendum was a means of demonstrating his credentials to the party faithful in a largely risk-free way: if the treaty fell (to the Irish or Czechs or Poles), then all for the good (since he wouldn’t have been responsible); if it was ratified and in force (as it now is), then he can (and has) say that it can’t be unpicked. At the time (2007), the first option looked the more likely.
However, as we have swung toward the second option, so Cameron has resisted all calls to hold a vote anyway. Consider his position: once elected, he has a large pile of policies to put in place, of which the EU is only a very small part. Why spend time and effort organising a referendum (that would almost certainly be won) when there are plenty of other things that voters care about a lot more?
Moreover, what could be done with such a result? Recently, the sceptics in the party say this could be a mandate to secure opt-outs, but going back to the first point, the EU’s leaders are not going to be hurrying back to the negotiating table any time soon. In addition, the bad will that a referendum would generate in Paris and Berlin (where Cameron is hardly flavour of the month) would make any negotiation deeply problematic. And given Washington’s current approach to Europe, more divisions aren’t going to help matters in the ’special relationship’.
So Cameron resists, and will resist. When he announces his new policy later today, one would imagine that he’ll take a cautious line. My guess would be a commitment to a referendum on all future treaty amendments and an attempt to limit or repartriate powers in some areas. However, I cannot see him holding any referendum, either on Lisbon or on membership.
EDIT: 1645GMT – and there you go (BBC): a commitment to future referenda and talking tough on ‘demanding back powers’. So, even less than I guessed. Let’s be optimistic and assume that Cameron will learn from this experience and think about the consequences of European policy in the years to come. Although it won’t make party management any easier.
